The Delicate Dance

We live in an extremely complex world, and that excludes human interaction.  Human interaction, in particular on a state to state basis, is an entirely different beast.  A relationship between two nations is forged when both nations have some sort of mutual goal, or some sort of dependency on the other.  Israel and Iran have no need for each other, and in fact, use each others existence as a means to an end.  Israel uses Iran as a way to justify its need for protection, and Iran uses Israel as a way to justify a need to defend itself, as well as a way to clandestinely support organizations such as Hamas and Hezbullah.

The US and England are an example of the other end of the spectrum.  The US and England share mutual interests, from trading of intelligence, to trading of goods and services.  They share a similar outlook on the world, and a goal of safety and prosperity for their nations.  It’s incredible to think that at one point in history, these two nations were the most hostile of enemies.

And then there exists the most complicated relationship of them all; one in which two nations are working together towards a common goal, but neither nation truly wants to be involved with the other.  A wonderful example of this would be Pakistan and the United States.

The United States needs Pakistan to fight the Taliban, and Pakistan needs the United States to protect it from India.  This leads to a fascinating balancing act, one that could tip in one direction or the other at any moment.

For years the United States has occupied the nation of Afghanistan with the intent of defeating the Taliban, dismantling Al-Qaeda, and hopefully bringing stability to the country and the region.  On a less obvious level, and one which I’ve never heard anyone actually admit, I believe the US is in Afghanistan because it is on the back steps of Iran; but that’s just speculation on my behalf.  During the years of the Bush administration, very little headway was made against the Taliban, or Al-Qaeda.  Focus was left squarely on Iraq, while a light presence kept an eye on Afghanistan .  Whether this was done intentionally to draw out the need to stay in both Afghanistan and Iraq, or because there were not resources to fight both conflicts, or some other reason, we will probably never know.  But the fact of the matter is, during that time, Pakistan played little to no role in helping to round up the Taliban leaders that were living unfettered in their country.  Anyone with half a brain knew that Pakistan knew full well where the Taliban were hiding, and yet something was stopping them from pulling the trigger and bringing them to justice.

All that has changed in recent times.  Whether it was the killing of over 3000 civilians in 2009, or some sort of pressure due to the focus of President Obama on winning the battle there, the Taliban is starting to come apart before our eyes.  In the matter of a day or two, it was revealed that multiple high level Taliban leaders had been taken into custody, including the number two man in the organization, Mullah Baradar.  Was this a coincidence?  Again, I’m not smart enough to know, but if I were to guess, it doesn’t take 9 years to find out where these guys are hiding and bring them in.

There is a delicate dance going on between these two nations.  Pakistan must play it safe, so not to look like it is too in bed with the US, while at the same time, facilitating a necessity for arms to protect themselves from India the Taliban.  The US, on the other hand, has to be sensitive of Pakistan’s position if it wants to make any kind of significant impact on the region, where Pakistan holds so much influence.

Like all great dances, you have no idea how all the subtle nuances will play out, but it certainly will be fascinating to see if these two nations continue to waltz together, or if they will eventually have to find new partners.